Archive for November, 2008

Have a Great Thanksgiving Weekend 2008

November 28th, 2008

Have a great weekend. I was so busy giving thanks yesterday I forgot to say anything about giving thanks on my weblog.

Slow posting for the rest of the weekend while I avoid malls, try to even the score up with the deer, and celebrate “replay” Thanksgiving with our friends on Sunday.

A Recommendation For Those Looking to Read More About the History of “Risk”

November 26th, 2008

I’m not someone who recommends a lot, if any, books on my weblog like some, but after the post about the nature and history of risk yesterday a few readers were wondering what I based my position off.

With that, I’d recommend an excellent book on the subject I read a few years ago, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk

Risk management, which assumes that future risks can be understood, measured and to some extent predicted, is the focus of this solid, thoroughgoing history. Probability theory, pioneered by 17th-century French mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat, has made possible the design of great bridges, electric power utilities and insurance policies.

The statistical sampling methods invented by dour Swiss scientist Jacob Bernoulli undergird diverse activities such as the testing of new drugs, stock-picking and wine tasting. Bernstein (Capital Ideas) animates his narrative with a colorful cast of risk-analyzers, including gambling addict Girolamo Cardano, 16th-century Italian physician to the Pope; and John Maynard Keynes, whose concerns over economic uncertainty compelled him to recommend an active, interventionist role for government. Bernstein also traces the development of business forecasting, game theory, insurance and derivatives, and surveys recent advances in risk forecasting made possible through chaos theory and by the development of neural networks.

While the book was written during a time when markets were setting records in a positive way, it’s still as relevant now as it was back in the mid-90′s, if not more so.

And while the synopsis might sound like a lot of numbers and boring history, it really is an excellent explanation of what risk is wrapped around a number of very interesting and exciting historical events and people.

More Bailouts: No Risk, All Reward for Poor Decisions

November 25th, 2008

Isn’t it ironic that the banking industry is now the least risky to be in?

With the way things are going, including another ten hundred gazillion in “bailout” money, being in the banking industry seems pretty attractive right now. You make out like a bandit when times are good, have zero incentive to mitigate risk and can “bank” on being saved when such a strategy comes to it’s natural conclusion.

There used to be a concept in our society, and especially in commerce, called “risk”. If you think about it, risk has been an underlying driver of progress in society. Planting crops, living in groups, discovering new parts of the world, buying insurance and lending money are are the result of risk mitigation. When you take that away, as we seem to be as a result of the ongoing “bailout”, there’s no punishment for bad decisions or poor risk management.

…a bit of philosophizing there, but it’s something that I’ve been thinking about for a while now, and is the #1 problem I have with the policy we’re taking right now with regard to these “bailouts”.

Citigroup the Latest to Privatize Profits and Socialize Losses

November 24th, 2008

I’ve said it before, but shouldn’t the executives who ran these companies into the ground be handing back the bonuses they received for doing so before you and I hand them a check for another $20 BILLION?

Maybe Citigroup shouldn’t have poured millions of dollars into the naming rights for the new Mets stadium if things were so tight? On the other hand, since you and I are now directly putting up the money to give Citigroup naming rights to the new Mets stadium, maybe it should be called, “John Q. Taxpayer Memorial Stadium” or “Mets Field: Financed entirely with public money, but we’ll keep the profits thank you very much.” or something..

One other thing.. According to recent conventional wisdom regarding bailouts of private companies, if the average salary of the employees at Citigroup is higher than any of their competitors, we have no business helping them out. After all, if they made poor decisions for years that led to the need for a bailout, it’s the fault of how much they’re paying their workers, right?

My point is this: It continues to amaze me that the power that be – and by that I mean the current administration, you know, the ones who’ve been in charge for 8 years – have no problem throwing money with no requirements or preconditions for how it’s used at the big financial firms, but when it comes to companies that create hundreds of thousands of jobs which happen to be held by those in unions, the well is suddenly dry.

Milwaukee County Supervisor Lynne De Bruin Continues Slide to the Right

November 21st, 2008

Of the 29 items that County Exec. Walker vetoed and sent back to the Milwaukee County Board yesterday, my Supervisor, Lynne DeBruin, who represents the west side of Milwaukee and eastern parts of Wauwatosa, sided with him on at least 12 of them.

In fact, the roll call of Borkowski, Cesarz, De Bruin, Rice, Sanfelippo, Schmitt voting to support the County Executive became one of the more commonly heard lines of the day. Supervisors Borkowski, Cesarz, Rice, and Sanfelippo are the conservative block of the County Board, it’s troubling to see my own representative on the Board continue to side with the conservative members of the Board and the County Executive.

Case in point: Sup. De Bruin voted against funding for the Community Justice Resource Center. She voted against recreation and exercise equipment for the King and Kosciuszko Community Centers, important community centers for senior citizens. She voted with the conservative block again and again throughout the day. Voting to raise bus fares to the highest in the nation??

It’s unfortunate to be sure to see a representative continue to be so out of touch with their constituents. The 15th district that I live in voted overwhelmingly for Gov. Doyle in 2004 and for Barack Obama in 2008, yet we are represented by someone who votes more like George W. Bush or Mark Green.

Saved By Zero Spoof Movie Trailer

November 20th, 2008

Since it’s nearly the end of the week I thought I’d keep the mood light and share this funny spoof trailer of “The Ring” since I’m still unable to pry “Saved by zero” from my mind. If I must suffer, so must we all.

“I’m troubled by these drawings…” Hilarious.

1130 WISN-AM Promoting Soft Porn on Its Website – Stay Classy WISN 1130!

November 20th, 2008

From the homepage of newstalk1130.com:

Milwaukee’s second largest AM radio station has a website promoting soft porn images. That seems more appropriate for a college frat house Facebook page than a radio station which promotes itself as a voice of “conservatism”.

What am I talking about? How about:

Pictures of half naked volleyball players, guys dressed like women, half naked Hooter’s waitresses, dreamy Sarah Palin, half naked 70′s women, half naked music women, half naked college girls, “rednecks”, half naked women on TV and Sarah Palin pornography.

Wholesome. On one hand you can tune in to 1130 AM to hear it’s radio hosts promoting themselves as conservatives who position themselves as the only firewall left between “good honest people” and “godless immoral anti-family liberals”. On the other you can check out the WISN 1130 homepage for a daily dose of half naked women, tasteless pictures and soft porn.

They even have a section in their photo gallery called “Guess the Cleavage”. Seriously.

Stay class(less)y 1130 WISN-AM Milwaukee.

Save Us From “Saved By Zero” Toyota Ad

November 19th, 2008

It’s heartening to see that I’m not the only one who is being driven up a wall by Toyota’s “Saved by Zero” ads.

Peter King of SI (towards the botom)
Time.com
Ad Rants

Dear Toyota ad executives: I understand there’s no such thing as “bad publicity”, but please, P-L-E-A-S-E, make it stop because any time I even see a Toyota on the highway these days, I try to preemptively get myself to stop from repeating the jingle in my head, usually to no avail.

Even writing about it, I’m cringing.

Milwaukee County Pension Payouts: Union Members Aren’t the Beneficiaries

November 18th, 2008

I’ve got a few things to follow up about yesterday’s post regarding the County pension backdrop payment to Mr. George Brotz.

When I wrote about this subject yesterday, the point I was making is that the media, right wing blogs & talk show hosts and the County Executive tend to lump all Milwaukee County workers into the same group when taking them to task for these huge pension payoffs.

The goal in doing so is to try to paint all workers as “lazy and overpaid” in their attempts to trash unions. According to their argument, if it weren’t for these darn unions and their massively damaging and over generous pensions, this County wouldn’t be in the financial mess it is.

So every time we hear about the “pension scandal” these days, a lot of people just automatically start up with the anti-union, “if only it weren’t for those fat cat labor pensions” rhetoric.

As I alluded to yesterday, there’s a small problem here.

Mr. Brotz, the latest retiree to be singled out and ridiculed for the $850,000 pension payout he’ll receive, wasn’t a member of any union while employed by Milwaukee County.

I was able to dig through the still terrible Milwaukee County web site and discover that in working for the Sheriff’s office under the title of “Accting Mgr”, Mr. Brotz was a “NR” or non-represented employee as you can see from the screenshot of the Milwaukee County position spreadsheet below.

As a non-union employee of Milwaukee County, he could have signed a waiver any time in the past 6 years to give up his right to take part of his pension in a lump sum. (I’m not trying to pass judgment on Mr. Brotz or ridicule his decision regarding the lump sum payment, I’ll leave that to “watchdogs” at the local paper)

While County Executive Walker may have publicly expressing outrage over Mr. Brotz’s payout, he knows full well that the waiver could have been signed, or Mr. Brotz could have been made to retire at the appropriate time and avoided the large payout.

But Sheriff Clarke and County Exec. Walker did nothing of the sort. Nor are they doing anything now with the number of non-union employee’s of Milwaukee County who are also lining up to collect their fat lump sum payments.

I’d argue that if the Sheriff and County Executive had any serious consideration for the financial future of this County, they’d be sitting down with all of their non-union employees near or past retirement and asking them to either sign the waiver or retire “on time” so we could avoid hearing about more stories of half million dollar payouts in the paper.

But they aren’t taking those steps now, and I doubt they will because these payouts are politically advantageous for them.

Every time another one is reported in the paper, they can drum up the faux outrage and position themselves as the only people who will stand up to these massive payouts that the unions don’t deserve and are bankrupting… etc, etc.. DESPITE the fact as I’ve explained above that these massive pension payouts are to non-union employees.

If the County Executive has the power to limit these lump sum pension payouts and chooses not to, he should be held accountable instead of allowed to place the blame on those who don’t deserve it… and reporters like Mr. Bice of the Journal Sentinel should perhaps spend a little time asking about that then harassing the wife of a recent retiree about the value of their home.

Milwaukee County Pension Shenanigans; How About Privatizing Management?

November 17th, 2008

Whenever the local media establishment finds itself in a slow news cycle, it’s good to know we can count on them to dredge up another story about a County worker cashing in for a big pension payout.

It’s a huge drain on the resources of this County to be sure, but of all the people making out through this deal – including the latest, George Brotz who will pull in $850,000 – has anyone else noticed that nearly all of them are administrators in the County?

They’re hardly the “rank and file” workers who are routinely lambasted for being “lazy” or “overpaid” or who commonly get the blame when we talk about the pension problem. In fact County Exec. Walker makes a common point that this needs to be addressed through privatization in spite of the fact that those “rank and file” workers who’s jobs Scott Walker wants to privatize in the name of “savings” are rarely the ones we read about in the paper.

There’s a difference between the pension the maintenance gal who pulls in $40,000 a year will receive and the one the accounting manager who made $75,000 a year will get.

If we really wanted to save money in this County, maybe we should be talking about privatizing the jobs in management that are bleeding us dry, not only those among the rank and file workers.

Obama to Give Weekly Address To American Public Via YouTube

November 14th, 2008

I’ve been wondering how long it would take for this to happen:

President-elect Barack Obama is taping Saturday’s weekly Democratic address not just for listeners, but for YouTube viewers, his office said Friday. And he plans to keep videotaping the radio addresses after taking the oath of office on Jan. 20.

Before then, the videos will be posted on Obama’s transition Web site, http://www.change.gov.

Obama is turning the radio address into a “multimedia opportunity” to communicate directly with the American people, his transition team said in a statement. – AP

The entire process of the “Saturday radio address” has always been a dinosaur in my opinion. It was a great use of an emerging technology by FDR back in the 30′s to communicate directly with the public, but it’s something that has completely outlived it’s usefulness and efficacy.