Conservative talk radio was just a twitter yesterday with the news that Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton would be dropping out of the race for Governor in Wisconsin. WISN’s Mark Belling in particular was quite over the top in predicting a “landslide” win for Republican Scott Walker several times on his show yesterday.

Perhaps caught up in his own rhetoric, he went on to say that “no Democrat would have a chance to win” next year because Milwaukee County Exec. Scott Walker would suck up too much support from Milwaukee County and deprive any Democratic candidate of the overwhelming support in Milwaukee they would need to offset Republican wins in other areas of the State.

While this isn’t news to anyone that follows Wisconsin politics, Belling claimed several times that Walker would “easily”
win 70% of Milwaukee County thanks to his strong support in the suburbs of Milwaukee like West Allis, Oak Creek, and his home town of Wauwatosa. With such a large margin of victory in a traditionally Democratic stronghold, Walker would cruise to an easy “landslide” victory no matter who the Democratic candidate for Gov. was.

As usual, Belling’s rhetoric – which is fueled by his own overly confident declarations that serve to convince himself he’s right – was not only rooted in an alternate reality where Walker is on the ballot as a Republican and wins over Democratic voters on a consistent basis, it’s factually wrong.

For those who prefer facts to the machinations of Mark Belling, here are the totals from the 2008 County Executive’s race in Milwaukee County between Scott Walker and Lena Taylor.

Scott Walker: 98,039 (57.6%)
Lena C. Taylor: 68,785 (40.5%)
Total: 170,251

In Wauwatosa, Walker’s home town:

Scott Walker: 9868 (70%)
Lena C. Taylor: 3973 (29%)
Total: 14,054

So in Walker’s home town, he pulled out an impressive 70% win, but in Milwaukee County as a whole, he won over 57% of the votes. Both are impressive numbers to be sure, but for those who want to look at the Governor’s race from a more objective standpoint, it’s no where near the kind of “landslide” that Belling and his cohorts are predicting.

To add to this, there are several other mitigating factors that will affect Walker’s performance in Milwaukee County, if he is in fact the Republican nominee for Governor (he does have a primary to go through first).

The first is to understand that Walker has never run as a Republican for County Executive as the office is non-partisan. Some people discount this and point out that he’s not afraid to run as a conservative, which I agree to, but they’re overlooking the fact that whether you disagree with them or not, a lot of people walk into the polling booth on election day and just vote the party line. This is one of the major reasons down ticket Democrats in Milwaukee always do so well.. They’re usually riding the coat tails of the bigger names at the top of the ticket. Not having to run as a identified Republican in a Spring election with low turnout has been great for Walker. Having his name on a ballot with an “R” next to it in a November election with higher turnout will be a challenge.

The second factor? Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett. Mayor Barrett is a widely popular politician who has very little baggage and is generally seen as a “good guy” even by those who don’t like his politics. His entry into the race would instantly nullify the Walker “Milwaukee advantage” as Barrett would more than likely outperform previous Democrats like Jim Doyle in Milwaukee County. The narrow margin of a loss in Milwaukee County the Walker campaign had been banking on would turn into a massive margin of victory for someone like Barrett.

Third, Mayor Barrett was also a well liked Congressman who represented some of the Milwaukee suburbs that the Walker campaign had been counting on. In as much as the Walker campaign was counting on those big margins of victory in Wauwatosa and West Allis to offset the vote from the city of Milwaukee to propel his campaign to a win, a candidate Barrett would turn the tables on him and use the same strategy to equalize the race in the suburbs and make Milwaukee County even more of a Democratic stronghold than it has been previously.

Lastly, Barrett has good name ID outside of Milwaukee County helped in no small part by his heroic actions last August when he stepped in to stop a fight and was severely beaten himself while leaving the Wisconsin State Fair. This got a ton of national coverage and made a lot of people stand up and take notice of the Mayor of the largest city in the State.

So while people like Mark Belling bloviate and pat themselves on the back in preparation for a “landslide” win by overestimating the support Walker has in Milwaukee County, the facts and several other possible factors in the race prove it’s going to be anything but easy sailing for Milwaukee’s County Executive in next year’s race for Governor.

Good news from the personnel committee of the Milwaukee County Board: they’ve initially approved a study to look at providing domestic partner benefits for County employees.

The board’s Personnel Committee approved a measure on a 4-2 vote to draft revisions to the county’s health plan to include the benefit, which is already offered to employees of the state, the City of Milwaukee and a number of large companies.

The measure calls for developing a final plan for offering health benefits to same sex or opposite sex partners of county workers. Follow-up action to formally establish the benefit also would be needed.

“It’s not a political matter, it’s an equality matter,” said Supervisor Christopher Larson, the measure’s main sponsor. Milwaukee County is behind the times in not having domestic partner benefits, he said. It’s time “to move out of the Dark Ages,” Larson said. – jsonline.com

Special recognition goes to Supervisor Chris Larson for proposing this legislation that would eliminate discrimination in determining benefits for County employees. It should be noted that this isn’t a proposal to implement domestic partner benefits, but just approve a study to look at doing it, which seems a prudent measure and something the full County Board should be able to get on board with.