Why can’t John McCain break the 40% ceiling in national polls? Right wing talk show hosts (and me) want to know!
Barack Obama leads John McCain 45 percent to 39 percent in the latest CBS News poll. Despite Obama’s highly-publicized foreign trip and McCain’s recent high-profile advertisements, the findings are unchanged since a CBS News/New York Times poll released last month. – CBS News
I’m sure this will be played out as damning news for the Obama campaign, but really: with all his tire gauges and Paris Hilton comparisons and general negative advertising, why can’t John McCain seem to crack 40% in national polls?
As an aside, it’s interesting to note the historical data on Presidential elections shows only fourteen presidential contests (30 percent) have been determined by fewer than 5 percentage points. Two of those have been in the last 8 years.
I live in the Washington Heights neighborhood of Milwaukee, WI with my wife Jen, our daughter Emerson, and sons Carter and Colton.
While your poll numbers from CBS are accurate, if I were on the Obama staff, I would be concerned about the trend in all poll numbers. Considering CBS’s own comment about his “highly-publicized foreign trip”, one would think the Senator Obama would have had a much more sizable lead. In fact, he should have cracked the 50% ceiling.
In a recent Gallup poll of registered voters taken on 8/6/08, Senator Obam had a lead of only 46% to 44% for Senator McCain. And this after Senator Obama’s “highly-publicized foreign trip”.
In a USA Today/Gallup poll of likely voters (usually more accurate than registered voters) taken between 7/25-28/08, Senator McCain actually has a lead of 49% to 45% for Senator Obama.
This must be rather disturbing to the Senator Obama campaign considering all the media coverage the senator received from the main stream media while on his foreign trip. The fawning main stream media may have actually hurt Senator Obama.
In a poll conducted by the nonpartisian Pew Research Center 8/1-4/08, 48% of the respondants said that they heard too much about Senator Obama while only 26% said they heard too much about Senator McCain. The breakdown of those numbers is really interesting:
2/3 of Republicans said they heard too much about Senator Obama (expected)
About 1/2 of Independents heard too much about Senator Obama (interesting – all this media coverage may turn off some Ind. voters to Senator Obama)
1/3 of Democrats said they heard too much about Senator Obaba (surprising!!!)
Further, about 40% of the respondants said that they did not hear enough about Senator McCain. The breakdown of those numbers is as follows:
50% of the Republicans (once again, expected)
40% of Independent voters (so, they want to learn more than what they can get in the main stream media)
25% of the Democrats that responded (once again, surprising!!)
So while the left leaning CBS/NY Times poll may give the Obama supporters a warm, fuzzy feeling, a closer look at other poll numbers does not look good for Senator Obama.
There are lots of polls out there and the numbers are all over the place. In nine polls Obma leads in eight and McCain in but one. But there are no blow outs.
Obama’s numbers range from 45 to 51% and McCain’s from 39 to 49%.
Odd that you’d pick the one poll where McCain’s numbers are lowest.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/
And the RCP composite is still 47% to 43% in favor of Sen. Obama.
I’m absolutely not one to get into this poll vs. that poll, because in the beginning of August, it’s ridiculous. At this point, the bases in the two camps have made up their minds, and the undecideds are still… well, undecided.
My point was that after a month of negative campaigning and trying to make everything and anything stick, the McCain campaign still trails by a not insignificant amount.